作者： bharat.cn

The sound of claps reverberated the COIVD-19 block of Lady Hardinge Medical Hospital (LHMH) in New Delhi on April 23. All the doctors and health care professionals exchanged complements after the first batch of COVID-19 patients, admitted three weeks ago, fully recovered and left the hospital.

Opened almost a month ago to quarantine symptomatic COVID-19 patients in one of its blocks, renamed as the COVID-19 block, the hospital received its first batch of four coronavirus patients, who were in their 20s and 30s and showed acute symptoms, almost three weeks ago.   

“We discharged them when they became symptomless and their reports came negative,” said Dr NN Mathur, Director, LHMH. “They were full of gratitude while leaving the hospital.”

Doctors said that it was a small exchange of complements, filling the atmosphere with happiness and a sense of achievement for a short period as bigger challenges lie ahead.

“These four patients hold a special significance for us. They were the first ones when the block was opened. They went on oxygen support multiple times, so their recovery is a morale booster for us. They were never admitted to the ICU,” a doctor said.

Doctors added that it took almost three weeks for the patients to recover, which suggests that the 14-day quarantine period is not of much significance today, as the behaviour and symptoms of Coronavirus keep on changing.  

The block has a total 29 beds, including the ICU, and it is almost full to the capacity.

The hospital is also assisting in the functioning of YMCA COVID Care Centre, which was opened by the district magistrate for asymptomatic patients.  

Though the lockdown in India is supposed to end on May 3, experts suggest the country might lose its momentum in the fight against coronavirus if restrictions are not extended further.

In an exclusive interview to India Today, Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of leading health journal “The Lancet”, warned that the minimum lockdown in India has to be 10 weeks, else all the good work achieved during this period will be lost and we would be in a situation far worse.

“The epidemic in each country won’t go on forever, it will burn itself out. Countries are doing the right thing to control the outbreak. If the lockdown is successful in India, you could see a decline in the epidemic around the end of a 10-week time course,” Horton said on Wednesday.

India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) scanned countries that have either lifted the lockdown or are planning to do so within the next 2-3 weeks and analysed how they have fared so far.

8-week lockdown in worst-hit countries

The United States, despite having the highest number of Covid-19 cases, has not announced a nationwide lockdown yet. Governors of several states have ordered people to stay at home and closed all public places but not without retaliation.

It was reported that in some states, people took to the streets demanding an end to the lockdown. President Donald Trump is also keen to reopen America, notwithstanding the fact that the country reported 8.5 lakh cases as of Thursday morning.

Spain, the second most affected country with over 2 lakh cases, has been under lockdown since March 14. On Wednesday, the Spanish government extended the lockdown till May 9. Thus the lockdown in Spain will last for at least 57 days.

Spain had locked down Haro, a small town in the northern part of the country, on March 7. Thus, lockdown in this town will last for at least 64 days. As of April 22, Spain reported more than 2.08 lakh cases, almost 86,000 recoveries and close to 22,000 deaths. Of the remaining 1 lakh cases, 92 per cent are in mild condition.

Similarly, Italy had imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 9, which is expected to last 57 days till May 3. Italy has more than 1.87 lakh cases, over 54,500 recoveries and 25,000 deaths. According to “worldometers”, of the 1.07 lakh active cases in the country, 98 per cent are in mild condition.

France announced strict restrictions in the first week of March and a nationwide lockdown on March 17. The lockdown in France will last 56 days till May 11. France has 1.6 lakh coronavirus cases, 40,657 recoveries and 21,340 deaths. Of its 97,000+ active cases, 95 per cent are in mild and 5 per cent in critical condition.

Wuhan, the epicentre of the pandemic, was locked from January 23 to April 8, when China was able to contain the virus. According to Johns Hopkins University data, as of April 8, the day China opened Wuhan, the recovery rate in the country was 93 per cent.

• The radical proposal underscores the challenges facing poorer developing countries – including nations like Indonesia and some in Sub-Saharan Africa
• The government has maintained its testing criteria gives an accurate tally of India’s number of cases, and says the disease is not spreading untracked

Controversial given the high risk of deaths, a coronavirus strategy discarded by the UK is being touted as the solution for poor but young countries like India.
The herd immunity strategy, which would allow a majority of the population to gain resistance to the virus by becoming infected and then recovering, could result in less economic devastation and human suffering than restrictive lockdowns designed to stop the virus’s spread, a number of experts have begun to argue in the nation of 1.3 billion people.
“No country can afford a prolonged period of lockdowns, and least of all a country like India,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, a prominent Indian epidemiologist. “You may be able to reach a point of herd immunity without infection really catching up with the elderly. And when the herd immunity reaches a sufficient number the outbreak will stop, and the elderly are also safe.”
A team of researchers at Princeton University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, a public health advocacy group based in New Delhi and Washington, has identified India as a place where this strategy could be successful because its disproportionately young population would face less risk of hospitalisation and death.
They said allowing the virus to be unleashed in a controlled way for the next seven months would give 60 per cent of the country’s people immunity by November, and thus halt the disease.

Mortality could be limited as the virus spreads compared to European nations like Italy given that 93.5 per cent of the Indian population is younger than 65, they said, though no death toll projections were released.