作者： bharat.cn

As the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in India nears 5,000, several states have asked the government to extend the lockdown and are taking stricter measures to prevent the virus from spreading further. Special teams have been set up in some states to monitor the situation in coronavirus hotspots and ramp up testing infrastructure. Despite all measures, states fear more cases could emerge if the lockdown is not extended. It remains to be seen whether the government extends the lockdown as cases in India continue to increase. Meanwhile, China finally lifted the 76-day lockdown in Wuhan, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, which has now claimed over 82,000 lives globally and infected over 14.2 lakh people. Countries like the US, France, Spain and Italy are facing a severe crisis due to the pandemic as more than 10,000 people have died in all four countries. 

About 400 million workers in India, working in the informal economy, are at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) said in a report on Wednesday that the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting 2.7 billion workers globally due to lockdowns.

COVID-19 is already affecting tens of millions of informal workers. In India, Nigeria and Brazil, the number of workers in the informal economy affected by the lockdown and other containment measures is substantial.

In India, nearly 90 per cent of the people work in the informal economy and about 400 million of these are at risk. ILO said rt said that particularly in low- and middle-income countries, hard-hit sectors have a high proportion of workers in informal employment and workers with limited access to health services and social protection. Without appropriate policy measures, workers face a high risk of falling into poverty and will experience greater challenges in regaining their livelihoods during the recovery period.

ILO noted that the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated in terms of intensity and expanded its global reach. Full or partial lockdown measures are now affecting almost 2.7 billion workers, representing around 81 per cent of the world’s workforce.

The signs of an ominous food crisis in rural areas are already there. Most rural households—barring the land-owning ones— across six or seven Indian states that Outlook spoke to fear that they may run out of food in a few days, given the number of family members returning home from cities. Retail outlets are unable to refurbish their dwindling inventories. Given the creeping onset of what could be a dispersed famine, experts fear that India may soon find itself in the midst of food riots and civil crisis if circulation is not eased. Economist Jean Dreze, who has worked extensively on starvation, fears rural India will be in a lot of pain with the rev­erse flow of migrants unless emergency measures are taken (see interview, “Bihar will take the worst hit”). The Centre and state governments are confident as of now, and say they will manage and resolve the distribution bottlenecks in a few days. A lot of Indians will be hoping that the proof of the pudding will come—in the eating.

The real extent of the emergency, even if of a disaggregated nature, will be known soon. There will also be economic consequences to contend with. In rural areas, the good news is that the croppers, or those whose produce is ready, are unlikely to go hungry. But the full force of the downstream repercussions will be on them—for the next 2-3 years, or more. Since they will be unable to sell their crops, or even opt for distress selling, their incomes will dwindle this season. That means they will be unable to repay their current debts, and will need to borrow even more for the next season.

In effect, farmers will get even more entangled in a debt whirlpool. Result? Suicides, extreme poverty and subsistence living—or, if they are fortunate, loan waivers at least for those within the formal system. There are many marginal farmers outside that. Also, armies of migrant workers—those who return home to earn money during the cutting season, who find themselves high and dry. They will depend heavily on welfare schemes, like MNREGA, which need to be escalated immediately. Else, we may be staring at extreme rural distress.

Urban areas have another phalanx of ghosts haunting them. Already strained by bankruptcies and more possible failures in the organised sector, they may soon see companies slashing costs (read: layoffs). Salaries may be cut too. Middle-class consumption will consequently come down drastically. As for the unorganised sector, the spectre of an uncertain future looms even sharper—and longer. One variable here: will migrant labourers even come back from the villages? Or will uncertainty keep them back? It will be bleak at home, and back in the city too.