巴拉特

作者： bharat.cn

  • India to become $5 trillion economy, doubters are just ‘professional pessimists’

    India to become $5 trillion economy, doubters are just ‘professional pessimists’

    Explaining how India can achieve the ambitious target of becoming a $5 trillion economy in the next five years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has hit out at those who sow the seeds of doubt over the plan.
    “I am confident that we will achieve the goal of $5 trillion economy in 5 years, but some people ask what is the need for this and why is it being done? This is the section which is called ‘professional pessimists,’” Modi told Bharatiya Janata Party workers in Varanasi, as cited by local media. It was Modi’s first visit to his constituency in Uttar Pradesh state, northern India, since re-election.

    He also said to beware of the “pessimists,” adding that they bring “more problems and troubles than you ever imagined.”
    “Size of the cake matters,” Modi stated as he explained why it is important for India to stick to his plan.

    Larger the size of the economy will be, the larger the prosperity will it bring for the country.

    Achieving the goal is not such a difficult task, he said. To do so, India has to raise per capita income, which will in turn boost purchasing power and the rise of demand, further triggering an expansion in services.

    Farmers could also contribute to economic success. In his speech on Saturday, Modi said the government is seeking to create an environment for export of agricultural products as it views farmers “as exporters and beyond just being producer of food.”

    Earlier this week, India rolled out a roadmap to reach the $5 trillion objective, laid down by the prime minister in mid-June. On Friday, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her maiden Union Budget to parliament. In her speech presenting the economic plan for 2019-20, she said the country is set to become a $3 trillion economy by the end of the year, adding that Modi’s goal is “well within” India’s capacity.
    The budget stipulates a continuation of structural reforms and heavy investment in infrastructure and digital economy to make India a $5 trillion economy.

    One day before the finance minister’s speech, the chief economic adviser to the government of India (CEA) presented ‘Economic Survey 2019’. The document states that India needs to sustain real GDP growth of eight percent to achieve the $5 trillion economy status. Economic growth should be driven by a “virtuous cycle” of savings, investment, and exports, according to the survey.

    As global economic growth cools down and is expected to grow at the slowest pace in three years this year (2.6 percent), India remains one of the fastest growing economies in the world. According to Nasdaq analysts, it is in the top five, and is expected to grow at 7.4 percent till 2021. It also boasts the status of world’s third largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity and seventh largest in terms of nominal GDP.

  • India to push Japan out of world’s top 3 economies by 2025

    India is projected to outpace the UK by the end of the year to become one of the world’s top five economies. It will then take it just six more years to overtake Japan as the world’s third largest economy, a new study suggests.
    India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to reach $5.9 trillion by 2025, according to the estimates of global consulting firm IHS Markit. The forecast plays into Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plan to make the country a $5 trillion economy in the next five years.

    “Total Indian GDP is forecast to rise from $3.1 trillion in 2019 to $5.9 trillion by 2025, while the size of the Indian consumer market is forecast to increase from $1.9 trillion in 2019 to $3.6 trillion by 2025,” the report reckoned. It adds that the country is set to be one of the main drivers of growth in the Asia-Pacific region and will contribute greatly to global GDP growth.
    However, to enter the ranks of the world’s upper middle-income countries, India has to address several challenges, such as reforms to its legal system and labor market and development of its transport and power infrastructure, among other priorities, according to the report.

    “Despite significant achievements in new infrastructure construction during PM Modi’s first term, rapid infrastructure development in key sectors such as transport and power infrastructure remain important priorities, as well as reducing the regulatory burden of government red tape,” the IHS Markit analysis reads.
    Those priorities were highlighted in the latest annual Economic Survey published by the Indian government earlier this month. The document, set to serve as a roadmap to reach the $5 trillion objective, says that India’s growth should be driven by a “virtuous cycle” of savings, investment, and exports.

    The consultancy stressed that, despite the existing challenges, the country’s economic outlook looks positive for Modi’s second term, with annual economic growth expected to stand at 7 percent over the 2019-2023 period.

  • Goldman Sachs sees India’s growth picking up in 2020

    The third-largest economy in Asia should rebound in 2020 as global conditions are set to improve, helping India’s economic growth to pick up, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
    The bank’s chief economist and head of global economics and markets research Jan Hatzius said the extent of the recovery will likely be modest instead of returning India to the growth rates seen a few years back.
    “As we go into 2020, we think there’s a tentative sense of stabilization in the Indian economy,” Hatzius told CNBC.

    In its report last week, Goldman projected India’s growth to fall to 5.1 percent this year from roughly seven percent annually in 2017 and 2018. The bank forecasts the country’s growth to pick up to 6.4 percent in 2020.

    According to Hatzius, an improving global economy and domestic policies such as corporate tax cuts should help to lift economic activity in India. He also said that the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, “probably isn’t quite done” with easing monetary policy yet.
    “We’ll see how strong the rebound is. We did see a significant deceleration; will it be able to make that up in 2020 and 2021 to get back to the growth rates that we saw a couple years ago?”

    Hatzius continued: “That may be a tall order, but incrementally we do think that growth probably picks up somewhat from here.”